How an Attack on Iran's Nuclear Sites can Isolate Israel

Feb 21, 2012
Enver Guseynov

Israel is considering launching air strikes against Iran's nuclear sites. - MathKnight - Wikimedia Commons

Iran's nuclear program has Israeli officials contemplating a preemptive strike; however, attacking Iran may undermine Israel's standing in the Middle East.

With Iran nearing nuclear potential, Israeli politicians and military leaders have been relentlessly pondering whether a preemptive strike against the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities is the only means of preventing it from acquiring nuclear weapons. Recent IAEA report alleges that Iran may be using its nuclear program for that very purpose (Borger). Iran has vehemently denied such allegations, maintaining that its program is for civilian purposes. Nevertheless, the Islamic state's clouded nuclear program, along with its support of anti-Israeli militant movements Hezbollah and Hamas, and a series of threatening statements by its leadership, may provide Israel with a reason to exercise military option against Iran, a view promoted by the Israeli leadership (Ravid). However, an Israeli strike against the Islamic state's nuclear sites will have far reaching implications, threatening to undermine regional stability and intensify Israel’s isolation and insecurity.

The Difficulty of Taking out Iran's Nuclear Facilities

When promoting the view that Israel should strike Iran's nuclear facilities, pundits often cite its successful operations against Iraqi and Syrian nuclear sites in 1981 and 2007 respectively (Mitnick). However, such comparisons are inaccurate and misleading. Both Iraq and Syria had a single nuclear site which Israel had little problem locating and taking out. Furthermore, at the time of the Israeli strike against its nuclear site, Iraq was embroiled in an intense war with Iran. Such set of circumstances significantly lowered the possibility of an Iraqi retaliation against Israel, as Iraq couldn't afford to start a two front war by engaging the Jewish state.

Unlike Syria and Iraq, Iran today has multiple nuclear facilities scattered throughout the country. Notably, two of Iran's key nuclear sites are located in the southern city of Bushehr and central city of Natanz, a geographic distribution that would surely complicate Israel's targeting. Moreover, a large part of its nuclear infrastructure is concealed underground in networks of tunnels and bunkers (Broad), something that significantly hinders Israel's hopes of delivering a successful strike that would set Iran's nuclear program back by several years.

This notion is echoed by former CIA officer Bruce Rieder, who states that "Unlike Israel's surgical strike on Syria's nuclear plant in 2007, hitting Iran is bound to be messy, explosive, and counterproductive". The complexity of locating Iran's nuclear sites means that should Israel choose to strike them, it would risk getting bogged in a lengthy, demanding, and aggressive air campaign within the Islamic state's borders. This will expose Israel to an increased criticism in the international community, but especially in the Middle East, further isolating it and jeopardizing its precarious alliances with pro-Western Arab states.

Backlash from the Arab World

Pro-Western Arab regimes, which are wary of Iran's regional ambitions and maintain a tacit alliance with the Jewish state, will find it increasingly difficult to stand alongside Israel against the Islamic regime following the attack on its nuclear sites. While these regimes oppose Iran, their populations are overwhelmingly anti-Israeli and would sympathize with the Islamic state should Israel strike its nuclear sites. The ensuing political atmosphere will likely compel Arab autocrats to distance themselves from Israel, weakening its standing in the region.

The 2011 Arab Public Opinion Poll shows that 52% of Arabs believe that Iran is trying to obtain nuclear weapons, while 64% think that Iran has the right to a civilian nuclear program. And while the poll highlights that the Arab masses have been increasingly wary about Iran's regional ambitions, it shows more dramatically the prevalence of a strong anti-Israeli sentiment among the same population segment. 71% of Arabs believe that Israel is the greatest threat facing them, with only 18% considering Iran to be a bigger threat. The poll also indicates that the vast majority of Arabs are disgruntled by America's close backing of Israel, including its neglect of Palestinians in the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks.

Given the statistics provided by the poll and the conflict-ridden history between the Israelis and Arabs, it's reasonable to assert that an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear sites will be viewed as an act of aggression among the vast majority of the Arabs. Israel's already tarnished regional image will sink to new lows, with its preemptive strike generating excessive condemnation from the Arab masses and undermining the Jewish state's tacit alliances with pro-Western Arab regimes.

Increased Isolation for Israel

Even though Arab leaders have been tacitly urging Israel to strike Iran, they have kept such sentiments well concealed from their public to "avoid being seen as working in concert with Israel" (Queenann). As the Arab Spring is unfolding throughout the entire region, autocratic Arab leaders are expected to be wary about any developments that could further disgruntle their restive populations.

The Sunni monarchs will thus have to weigh the benefits of Israel's derailment of the Iranian nuclear program against the unrest such developments would generate within their borders. Continuing to side with Israel following its strike on Iran's nuclear facilities may become too politically risky for Arab governments, leaving the Jewish state with potentially no regional allies to meet future threats from the Islamic Republic.

Israel is already facing a precarious political situation in the Middle East, as its alliances with Turkey and Egypt are unraveling. Regional condemnation which would generate from its military operation in Iran will deal yet another blow to the Jewish state's standing in the Middle East, intensifying its isolation. Exacerbating Israel's situation is the fact that its preemptive strike will likely empower Iran politically, elevating the regional threats facing the Jewish state. This is the subject of the second article of this two part series.